US Output Gap (I:USPGDPG)
Level Chart
Basic Info
|
US Output Gap is at 2.20%, compared to 1.69% last quarter and 2.16% last year. This is higher than the long term average of -0.16%. |
|
The US Output Gap is the difference between actual GDP or actual output and potential GDP. The calculation for the output gap is Y–Y* where Y is actual output and Y* is potential output. If this calculation yields a positive number it is called an inflationary gap and indicates the growth of aggregate demand is outpacing the growth of aggregate supply—possibly creating inflation; if the calculation yields a negative number it is called a recessionary gap—possibly signifying deflation. |
| Report | Gross Domestic Product (GDP) |
| Category | GDP |
| Region | United States |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis |
Stats
| Last Value | 2.20% |
| Latest Period | Sep 2025 |
| Last Updated | Jan 22 2026, 16:31 EST |
| Long Term Average | -0.16% |
| Average Growth Rate | -115.0% |
| Value from Last Quarter | 1.69% |
| Change from Last Quarter | 30.08% |
| Value from 1 Year Ago | 2.16% |
| Change from 1 Year Ago | 1.57% |
| Frequency | Quarterly |
| Unit | Percent of GDP |
| Adjustment | N/A |
| Formula | US GDP Gap * 100.00 / US Real Potential GDP |
Historical Data
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| September 30, 2025 | 2.20% |
| June 30, 2025 | 1.69% |
| March 31, 2025 | 1.31% |
| December 31, 2024 | 2.05% |
| September 30, 2024 | 2.16% |
| June 30, 2024 | 1.91% |
| March 31, 2024 | 1.60% |
| December 31, 2023 | 1.97% |
| September 30, 2023 | 1.70% |
| June 30, 2023 | 1.11% |
| March 31, 2023 | 1.04% |
| December 31, 2022 | 0.88% |
| September 30, 2022 | 0.75% |
| June 30, 2022 | 0.58% |
| March 31, 2022 | 0.97% |
| December 31, 2021 | 1.77% |
| September 30, 2021 | 0.58% |
| June 30, 2021 | 0.27% |
| March 31, 2021 | -0.92% |
| December 31, 2020 | -1.81% |
| September 30, 2020 | -2.43% |
| June 30, 2020 | -9.02% |
| March 31, 2020 | -0.76% |
| December 31, 2019 | 1.07% |
| September 30, 2019 | 0.89% |
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| June 30, 2019 | 0.25% |
| March 31, 2019 | -0.06% |
| December 31, 2018 | -0.15% |
| September 30, 2018 | 0.24% |
| June 30, 2018 | 0.14% |
| March 31, 2018 | 0.14% |
| December 31, 2017 | -0.16% |
| September 30, 2017 | -0.78% |
| June 30, 2017 | -1.07% |
| March 31, 2017 | -1.14% |
| December 31, 2016 | -1.15% |
| September 30, 2016 | -1.22% |
| June 30, 2016 | -1.43% |
| March 31, 2016 | -1.27% |
| December 31, 2015 | -1.35% |
| September 30, 2015 | -1.05% |
| June 30, 2015 | -0.95% |
| March 31, 2015 | -1.08% |
| December 31, 2014 | -1.48% |
| September 30, 2014 | -1.50% |
| June 30, 2014 | -2.21% |
| March 31, 2014 | -3.00% |
| December 31, 2013 | -2.21% |
| September 30, 2013 | -2.60% |
| June 30, 2013 | -2.98% |
News
Basic Info
|
US Output Gap is at 2.20%, compared to 1.69% last quarter and 2.16% last year. This is higher than the long term average of -0.16%. |
|
The US Output Gap is the difference between actual GDP or actual output and potential GDP. The calculation for the output gap is Y–Y* where Y is actual output and Y* is potential output. If this calculation yields a positive number it is called an inflationary gap and indicates the growth of aggregate demand is outpacing the growth of aggregate supply—possibly creating inflation; if the calculation yields a negative number it is called a recessionary gap—possibly signifying deflation. |
| Report | Gross Domestic Product (GDP) |
| Category | GDP |
| Region | United States |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis |
Stats
| Last Value | 2.20% |
| Latest Period | Sep 2025 |
| Last Updated | Jan 22 2026, 16:31 EST |
| Long Term Average | -0.16% |
| Average Growth Rate | -115.0% |
| Value from Last Quarter | 1.69% |
| Change from Last Quarter | 30.08% |
| Value from 1 Year Ago | 2.16% |
| Change from 1 Year Ago | 1.57% |
| Frequency | Quarterly |
| Unit | Percent of GDP |
| Adjustment | N/A |
| Formula | US GDP Gap * 100.00 / US Real Potential GDP |