Macroeconomic research performed by professors at the University of Oregon.

Last Updated: Dec 1 2022, 12:51 EST Next Release: Jan 1 2023, 10:00 EST

US Recession Probabilities (Chauvet and Piger) are the smoothed probabilities of a recession in the US. They are calculated from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model on non-farm payroll employment, industrial production index, real personal income, and real manufacturing and trade sales.

Major US Recession Probabilities - Chauvet and Piger Indicators

Indicator Period Value % CHG PREV
US Recession Probability Oct 2022 0.90% 200.0%