US Recession Probability (I:USRP)
0.40% for Sep 2026
Level Chart
Basic Info
|
US Recession Probability is at 0.40%, compared to 0.20% last month and 0.60% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 8.75%. |
| Report | US Recession Probabilities - Chauvet and Piger |
| Category | Economic Sentiment, Outlook and Activity |
| Region | United States |
| Source | Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger |
Stats
| Last Value | 0.40% |
| Latest Period | Sep 2026 |
| Last Updated | Nov 1 2026, 10:00 EST |
| Next Release | Dec 1 2026, 10:00 EST |
| Long Term Average | 8.75% |
| Average Growth Rate | 1.47K% |
| Value from Last Month | 0.20% |
| Change from Last Month | 100.0% |
| Value from 1 Year Ago | 0.60% |
| Change from 1 Year Ago | -33.33% |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percent |
| Adjustment | N/A |
| Download Source File |
Historical Data
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| September 30, 2026 | 0.40% |
| August 31, 2026 | 0.20% |
| July 31, 2026 | 0.12% |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.12% |
| May 31, 2026 | 0.06% |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.06% |
| March 31, 2026 | 0.06% |
| February 28, 2026 | 0.08% |
| January 31, 2026 | 0.08% |
| December 31, 2025 | 0.10% |
| November 30, 2025 | 0.34% |
| October 31, 2025 | 0.64% |
| September 30, 2025 | 0.60% |
| August 31, 2025 | 0.52% |
| July 31, 2025 | 0.16% |
| June 30, 2025 | 0.24% |
| May 31, 2025 | 0.34% |
| April 30, 2025 | 0.18% |
| March 31, 2025 | 0.14% |
| February 28, 2025 | 0.10% |
| January 31, 2025 | 0.46% |
| December 31, 2024 | 0.14% |
| November 30, 2024 | 0.16% |
| October 31, 2024 | 0.40% |
| September 30, 2024 | 0.40% |
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| August 31, 2024 | 0.32% |
| July 31, 2024 | 1.06% |
| June 30, 2024 | 0.44% |
| May 31, 2024 | 0.16% |
| April 30, 2024 | 0.50% |
| March 31, 2024 | 0.26% |
| February 29, 2024 | 0.50% |
| January 31, 2024 | 3.06% |
| December 31, 2023 | 1.06% |
| November 30, 2023 | 0.58% |
| October 31, 2023 | 0.60% |
| September 30, 2023 | 0.30% |
| August 31, 2023 | 0.28% |
| July 31, 2023 | 0.28% |
| June 30, 2023 | 0.56% |
| May 31, 2023 | 0.42% |
| April 30, 2023 | 0.34% |
| March 31, 2023 | 0.44% |
| February 28, 2023 | 0.42% |
| January 31, 2023 | 0.26% |
| December 31, 2022 | 1.34% |
| November 30, 2022 | 1.22% |
| October 31, 2022 | 0.68% |
| September 30, 2022 | 0.32% |
| August 31, 2022 | 0.26% |
News
Headline
Time (ET)
11/11 12:42
11/09 17:15
11/04 09:55
10/27 08:10
10/22 10:05
Basic Info
|
US Recession Probability is at 0.40%, compared to 0.20% last month and 0.60% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 8.75%. |
| Report | US Recession Probabilities - Chauvet and Piger |
| Category | Economic Sentiment, Outlook and Activity |
| Region | United States |
| Source | Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger |
Stats
| Last Value | 0.40% |
| Latest Period | Sep 2026 |
| Last Updated | Nov 1 2026, 10:00 EST |
| Next Release | Dec 1 2026, 10:00 EST |
| Long Term Average | 8.75% |
| Average Growth Rate | 1.47K% |
| Value from Last Month | 0.20% |
| Change from Last Month | 100.0% |
| Value from 1 Year Ago | 0.60% |
| Change from 1 Year Ago | -33.33% |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percent |
| Adjustment | N/A |
| Download Source File |