US Recession Probability (I:USRP)
0.54% for May 2026
Level Chart
Basic Info
|
US Recession Probability is at 0.54%, compared to 0.26% last month and 0.54% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 8.80%. |
| Report | US Recession Probabilities - Chauvet and Piger |
| Category | Economic Sentiment, Outlook and Activity |
| Region | United States |
| Source | Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger |
Stats
| Last Value | 0.54% |
| Latest Period | May 2026 |
| Last Updated | Jul 1 2026, 10:04 EDT |
| Next Release | Aug 1 2026, 10:00 EDT |
| Long Term Average | 8.80% |
| Average Growth Rate | 1.49K% |
| Value from Last Month | 0.26% |
| Change from Last Month | 107.7% |
| Value from 1 Year Ago | 0.54% |
| Change from 1 Year Ago | 0.00% |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percent |
| Adjustment | N/A |
| Download Source File |
Historical Data
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | 0.54% |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.26% |
| March 31, 2026 | 0.32% |
| February 28, 2026 | 0.16% |
| January 31, 2026 | 0.18% |
| December 31, 2025 | 0.12% |
| November 30, 2025 | 0.48% |
| October 31, 2025 | 1.16% |
| September 30, 2025 | 0.92% |
| August 31, 2025 | 0.82% |
| July 31, 2025 | 0.20% |
| June 30, 2025 | 0.16% |
| May 31, 2025 | 0.54% |
| April 30, 2025 | 0.32% |
| March 31, 2025 | 0.12% |
| February 28, 2025 | 0.10% |
| January 31, 2025 | 0.38% |
| December 31, 2024 | 0.10% |
| November 30, 2024 | 0.18% |
| October 31, 2024 | 0.28% |
| September 30, 2024 | 0.34% |
| August 31, 2024 | 0.24% |
| July 31, 2024 | 0.64% |
| June 30, 2024 | 0.36% |
| May 31, 2024 | 0.16% |
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| April 30, 2024 | 0.50% |
| March 31, 2024 | 0.26% |
| February 29, 2024 | 0.50% |
| January 31, 2024 | 3.06% |
| December 31, 2023 | 1.06% |
| November 30, 2023 | 0.58% |
| October 31, 2023 | 0.60% |
| September 30, 2023 | 0.30% |
| August 31, 2023 | 0.28% |
| July 31, 2023 | 0.28% |
| June 30, 2023 | 0.56% |
| May 31, 2023 | 0.42% |
| April 30, 2023 | 0.34% |
| March 31, 2023 | 0.44% |
| February 28, 2023 | 0.42% |
| January 31, 2023 | 0.26% |
| December 31, 2022 | 1.34% |
| November 30, 2022 | 1.22% |
| October 31, 2022 | 0.68% |
| September 30, 2022 | 0.32% |
| August 31, 2022 | 0.26% |
| July 31, 2022 | 0.16% |
| June 30, 2022 | 0.40% |
| May 31, 2022 | 0.56% |
| April 30, 2022 | 0.28% |
News
Headline
Time (ET)
07/31 13:23
07/28 07:54
07/24 13:30
07/23 08:53
07/06 12:09
Basic Info
|
US Recession Probability is at 0.54%, compared to 0.26% last month and 0.54% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 8.80%. |
| Report | US Recession Probabilities - Chauvet and Piger |
| Category | Economic Sentiment, Outlook and Activity |
| Region | United States |
| Source | Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger |
Stats
| Last Value | 0.54% |
| Latest Period | May 2026 |
| Last Updated | Jul 1 2026, 10:04 EDT |
| Next Release | Aug 1 2026, 10:00 EDT |
| Long Term Average | 8.80% |
| Average Growth Rate | 1.49K% |
| Value from Last Month | 0.26% |
| Change from Last Month | 107.7% |
| Value from 1 Year Ago | 0.54% |
| Change from 1 Year Ago | 0.00% |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percent |
| Adjustment | N/A |
| Download Source File |