US Recession Probabilities - Chauvet and Piger Report

US Recession Probabilities (Chauvet and Piger) are the smoothed probabilities of a recession in the US. They are calculated from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model on non-farm payroll employment, industrial production index, real personal income, and real manufacturing and trade sales.

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US Recession Probability

Current (Sep 2019) Previous (Aug 2019) % Chg Prev % Chg 1Y
2.76% 0.26% 961.5% 3.35K%

Major US Recession Probabilities - Chauvet and Piger Indicators

Indicator Period Value % Chg Prev
US Recession Probability Sep 2019 2.76% 961.5%
View and sort all 1 US Recession Probabilities - Chauvet and Piger Report Indicators
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