US Recession Probabilities - Chauvet and Piger

US Recession Probabilities (Chauvet and Piger) are the smoothed probabilities of a recession in the US. They are calculated from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model on non-farm payroll employment, industrial production index, real personal income, and real manufacturing and trade sales.

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US Recession Probability

Current (Mar 2020) Previous (Feb 2020) % Chg Prev % Chg 1Y
100.0% 32.55% 207.2% 24.90K%

Major US Recession Probabilities - Chauvet and Piger Indicators

Indicator Period Value % Chg Prev
US Recession Probability Mar 2020 100.0% 207.2%
View and sort all 1 US Recession Probabilities - Chauvet and Piger Indicators

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