US Recession Probabilities - Chauvet and Piger

US Recession Probabilities (Chauvet and Piger) are the smoothed probabilities of a recession in the US. They are calculated from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model on non-farm payroll employment, industrial production index, real personal income, and real manufacturing and trade sales.

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US Recession Probability

Current (Sep 2021) Previous (Aug 2021) % Chg Prev % Chg 1Y
44.40% 32.86% 35.12% 110.9K%

Major US Recession Probabilities - Chauvet and Piger Indicators

Indicator Period Value % Chg Prev
US Recession Probability Sep 2021 44.40% 35.12%
View and sort all 1 US Recession Probabilities - Chauvet and Piger Indicators

Related Indicator Reports

Report Last Updated
Weekly Economic Index (WEI) Nov 26, 11:33 EST
ESRI Index of Business Conditions Nov 25, 00:00 EST
Philly Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey Nov 23, 08:31 EST
Chicago Fed National Activity Report Nov 22, 08:32 EST
Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions Nov 10, 10:03 EST
OECD Composite Leading Indicators Nov 10, 08:56 EST
Ivey Purchasing Managers Index Nov 5, 10:03 EDT

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