Level Chart

Created with Highcharts 11.1.0Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '2650.00%23.18%

Basic Info

US Recession Probability is at 23.18%, compared to 29.40% last month and 61.47% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 15.10%.

Stats

Last Value 23.18%
Latest Period Jan 2026
Last Updated Feb 5 2025, 11:04 EST
Next Release Mar 5 2025, 11:00 EST (E)
Long Term Average 15.10%
Average Growth Rate 89.89%
Value from Last Month 29.40%
Change from Last Month -21.16%
Value from 1 Year Ago 61.47%
Change from 1 Year Ago -62.30%
Frequency Monthly
Unit Percent
Adjustment N/A
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Historical Data

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Date Value
January 31, 2026 23.18%
December 31, 2025 29.40%
November 30, 2025 33.56%
October 31, 2025 42.05%
September 30, 2025 57.06%
August 31, 2025 61.79%
July 31, 2025 56.29%
June 30, 2025 55.83%
May 31, 2025 51.82%
April 30, 2025 50.04%
March 31, 2025 58.31%
February 28, 2025 58.31%
January 31, 2025 61.47%
December 31, 2024 62.94%
November 30, 2024 51.84%
October 31, 2024 46.11%
September 30, 2024 56.16%
August 31, 2024 60.83%
July 31, 2024 66.01%
June 30, 2024 67.31%
May 31, 2024 70.85%
April 30, 2024 68.22%
March 31, 2024 57.77%
February 29, 2024 54.49%
January 31, 2024 57.13%
Date Value
December 31, 2023 47.31%
November 30, 2023 38.06%
October 31, 2023 26.03%
September 30, 2023 23.07%
August 31, 2023 25.15%
July 31, 2023 17.63%
June 30, 2023 5.93%
May 31, 2023 4.11%
April 30, 2023 3.71%
March 31, 2023 5.49%
February 28, 2023 6.14%
January 31, 2023 6.04%
December 31, 2022 7.70%
November 30, 2022 6.83%
October 31, 2022 6.66%
September 30, 2022 8.46%
August 31, 2022 9.49%
July 31, 2022 9.06%
June 30, 2022 7.08%
May 31, 2022 6.11%
April 30, 2022 5.95%
March 31, 2022 6.26%
February 28, 2022 9.59%
January 31, 2022 12.19%
December 31, 2021 14.36%

Basic Info

US Recession Probability is at 23.18%, compared to 29.40% last month and 61.47% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 15.10%.

Stats

Last Value 23.18%
Latest Period Jan 2026
Last Updated Feb 5 2025, 11:04 EST
Next Release Mar 5 2025, 11:00 EST (E)
Long Term Average 15.10%
Average Growth Rate 89.89%
Value from Last Month 29.40%
Change from Last Month -21.16%
Value from 1 Year Ago 61.47%
Change from 1 Year Ago -62.30%
Frequency Monthly
Unit Percent
Adjustment N/A
Download Source File Upgrade
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