US Recession Probability (I:USRPEM)
23.18% for Jan 2026
Basic Info
|
US Recession Probability is at 23.18%, compared to 29.40% last month and 61.47% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 15.10%. |
Stats
| Last Value | 23.18% |
| Latest Period | Jan 2026 |
| Last Updated | Feb 5 2025, 11:04 EST |
| Next Release | Apr 5 2025, 11:00 EDT (E) |
| Long Term Average | 15.10% |
| Average Growth Rate | 89.89% |
| Value from Last Month | 29.40% |
| Change from Last Month | -21.16% |
| Value from 1 Year Ago | 61.47% |
| Change from 1 Year Ago | -62.30% |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percent |
| Adjustment | N/A |
| Download Source File | Upgrade |
Historical Data
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| January 31, 2026 | 23.18% |
| December 31, 2025 | 29.40% |
| November 30, 2025 | 33.56% |
| October 31, 2025 | 42.05% |
| September 30, 2025 | 57.06% |
| August 31, 2025 | 61.79% |
| July 31, 2025 | 56.29% |
| June 30, 2025 | 55.83% |
| May 31, 2025 | 51.82% |
| April 30, 2025 | 50.04% |
| March 31, 2025 | 58.31% |
| February 28, 2025 | 58.31% |
| January 31, 2025 | 61.47% |
| December 31, 2024 | 62.94% |
| November 30, 2024 | 51.84% |
| October 31, 2024 | 46.11% |
| September 30, 2024 | 56.16% |
| August 31, 2024 | 60.83% |
| July 31, 2024 | 66.01% |
| June 30, 2024 | 67.31% |
| May 31, 2024 | 70.85% |
| April 30, 2024 | 68.22% |
| March 31, 2024 | 57.77% |
| February 29, 2024 | 54.49% |
| January 31, 2024 | 57.13% |
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| December 31, 2023 | 47.31% |
| November 30, 2023 | 38.06% |
| October 31, 2023 | 26.03% |
| September 30, 2023 | 23.07% |
| August 31, 2023 | 25.15% |
| July 31, 2023 | 17.63% |
| June 30, 2023 | 5.93% |
| May 31, 2023 | 4.11% |
| April 30, 2023 | 3.71% |
| March 31, 2023 | 5.49% |
| February 28, 2023 | 6.14% |
| January 31, 2023 | 6.04% |
| December 31, 2022 | 7.70% |
| November 30, 2022 | 6.83% |
| October 31, 2022 | 6.66% |
| September 30, 2022 | 8.46% |
| August 31, 2022 | 9.49% |
| July 31, 2022 | 9.06% |
| June 30, 2022 | 7.08% |
| May 31, 2022 | 6.11% |
| April 30, 2022 | 5.95% |
| March 31, 2022 | 6.26% |
| February 28, 2022 | 9.59% |
| January 31, 2022 | 12.19% |
| December 31, 2021 | 14.36% |
News
Headline
Wire
Time (ET)
MT Newswires
03/17 11:16
MT Newswires
03/11 08:20
MT Newswires
03/10 13:59
MT Newswires
03/10 13:11
MT Newswires
03/07 17:02
Basic Info
|
US Recession Probability is at 23.18%, compared to 29.40% last month and 61.47% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 15.10%. |
Stats
| Last Value | 23.18% |
| Latest Period | Jan 2026 |
| Last Updated | Feb 5 2025, 11:04 EST |
| Next Release | Apr 5 2025, 11:00 EDT (E) |
| Long Term Average | 15.10% |
| Average Growth Rate | 89.89% |
| Value from Last Month | 29.40% |
| Change from Last Month | -21.16% |
| Value from 1 Year Ago | 61.47% |
| Change from 1 Year Ago | -62.30% |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percent |
| Adjustment | N/A |
| Download Source File | Upgrade |