US Recession Probabilities - Estrella and Mishkin Report

US Recession Probabilities (Estrella and Mishkin) is predicted twelve months ahead through a model which uses the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates.

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US Recession Probability

Current (Jan 2021) Previous (Dec 2020) % Chg Prev % Chg 1Y
25.20% 23.62% 6.69% 6.70%

Major US Recession Probabilities - Estrella and Mishkin Indicators

Indicator Period Value % Chg Prev
US Recession Probability Jan 2021 25.20% 6.69%
View and sort all 1 US Recession Probabilities - Estrella and Mishkin Report Indicators
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