US Recession Probability

Major US Recession Probabilities - Estrella and Mishkin Indicators

Indicator name Period Value % CHG PReV
US Recession Probability Nov 2023 38.06% 46.22%

Basic Info

Last Updated: Dec 7 2022, 12:08 EST
Next Release: Jan 1 2023, 11:00 EST
Site: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html
Category: Economic Sentiment, Outlook and Activity
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Region: United States

US Recession Probabilities (Estrella and Mishkin) is predicted twelve months ahead through a model which uses the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates.

Upcoming Reports

Report Name Next Released
Dec 8 2022, 06:00 EST
Dec 12 2022, 10:00 EST
Dec 13 2022, 05:00 EST
Dec 14 2022, 10:00 EST
Dec 15 2022, 11:30 EST
Dec 20 2022, 08:30 EST
Dec 22 2022, 00:00 EST (R)
Dec 22 2022, 08:30 EST
Dec 28 2022, 10:00 EST
Dec 28 2022, 10:00 EST