Widespread residential price growth expected in 2025, as interest rate cuts prompt market rebound

RE/MAX Canada expects national average home price to rise by five per cent next year

• One-third of Canadians (36 per cent) are optimistic that conditions in the Canadian housing market will improve in 2025
  
  
• It's anticipated that the 2025 housing market will favour sellers in 44 per cent of regions surveyed, while 33 per cent of the regions are likely to balance out, and 17 per cent will favour buyers

TORONTO, Nov. 26, 2024 /CNW/ -- Canadians are looking ahead to 2025 with a positive outlook on the housing market, prompted by a series of interest rate cuts in the latter part of 2024. RE/MAX Canada and its network of brokers and agents are expecting a more active market next year, with the national average residential price likely to increase by five per cent, and sales anticipated to rise in 33/37 regions surveyed, with increases up to 25 per cent.

Download the 2025 Housing Market Outlook Report Data Table

This renewed confidence in the market is notably being felt by first-time homebuyers (seven per cent) according to a Leger surveyed commissioned by RE/MAX Canada as part of the 2025 Housing Market Outlook Report. RE/MAX brokers and agents in 81 per cent of regions surveyed noted that first-time homebuyers were the key demographic anticipated to drive market activity in 2025.

"While affordability challenges persist, the sequential interest rate cuts and changes to the mortgage stress test are a much-needed reprieve for those looking to get into the market," says Christopher Alexander, President of RE/MAX Canada. "The current environment is more encouraging than it has been in the past few years, especially for first-time homebuyers. However, a boost in sales, coupled with limited inventory, almost always leads to rising prices, which is the trend we're expecting to see materialize in virtually all Canadian housing markets."

Canadian Consumer Insights

According to the Leger survey, three quarters of Canadians (73 per cent) believe home ownership is the best investment they can make. This sentiment is unchanged year-over-year.  Sixty per cent of Canadians currently own a home. Meanwhile, nearly half of Canadians (49 per cent) are confident that home ownership is attainable; and 40 per cent are increasingly becoming more open to settling down in new neighbourhoods to mitigate and manage some of the hurdles surrounding affordability.

The survey outlined some key home-buying trends heading into 2025, including: 47 per cent of Canadians (up by 14 per cent from 2024) prioritize residential properties and areas that are less likely to be impacted by climate change. Results also highlight that more than half of Canadians (62 per cent; up five per cent when comparing results from 2024) are more confident that working with a professional realtor broker or agent will bring value to the overall buying or selling process. When looking for information about new neighbourhoods to move to, 36 per cent turn to a real estate agent, while 42 per cent rely on online search engines and 45 per cent ask friends and family.

Regional Market Insights

RE/MAX brokers and agents nationwide, were asked to share a year-over-year analysis of their local market between January 1 and October 31 and share their estimated outlook for 2025. Ahead of 2025, it's anticipated that 44 per cent regions will shift to a sellers' market (Victoria, BC, Greater Vancouver Area, BC, Edmonton, AB, Regina, SK, Sudbury, ON, North Bay, ON, Simcoe County, ON, York Region, ON, Windsor, ON, Thunder Bay, ON, Kenora, On, Fredericton, NB, Saint John, NB, Halifax, NS, Truro & Colchester, NS, and St. John's Metro, N.L), while 33 per cent regions will shift to balance out (Vancouver Island, BC, Kelowna/Central Okanagan, BC, Winnipeg, MB, Kitchener-Waterloo, ON, Mississauga, ON, Brampton, ON, Durham, ON, Toronto, ON, Ottawa, ON, Sault Ste. Marie, ON, Kingston, ON, and Prince Edward Island), 17 per cent will shift to a buyers' market (Hamilton, ON, Burlington, ON, Peterborough, ON, Kawartha Lakes, ON, Muskoka, ON, and Haliburton, ON), while six per cent will experience mixed market conditions (Calgary, AB and Niagara, ON).

Based on their insights, the majority of the regions surveyed noted that first time homebuyers are one audience group driving the market across the nation, and many are looking for townhomes and small residential properties such as bungalows, while move-up and move-over homebuyers are looking for larger properties with additional space. On the flip side, retirees are seeking to down-size in most regions, with the exception of Calgary who are seeking villas and larger condominiums. Similar, to last year, many homebuyers are still looking for detached homes, as well semi-detached homes with income potential to off-set rising cost of living. These trends are likely to continue heading into 2025, according to RE/MAX brokers across the country.

Western Canada

Heading into 2025, British Columbia and the Prairies are anticipating average residential prices to rise across the region by as much as three to10 per cent. Specifically, sale prices are anticipated to increase by three per cent in Kelowna/Central Okanagan, four per cent in Vancouver Island, seven per cent in the Greater Vancouver Area (GVA), five per cent in Calgary, Alberta, 10 per cent in Edmonton, Alberta, and five per cent in Winnipeg, Manitoba. Sale transactions in the region are also anticipated to increase by four to 20 per cent in Vancouver Island, GVA, and Kelowna/Central Okanagan, and two to five per cent in Edmonton and Calgary, as well as Winnipeg.

GVA and Victoria are anticipating seller's markets for 2025, while Vancouver Island and Kelowna/Central Okanagan are balanced heading into the new year. In the Prairies, a mix of both balanced and seller's markets are anticipated.

In Alberta, specifically Calgary and Edmonton, continue to see demand from out-of-province buyers from Ontario and British Columbia who are searching for affordability. Calgary, in particular, has seen a boost in popularity in the last few years, and as a result, affordable housing is in low supply. As a result, Edmonton has seen an influx of homebuyers from Calgary who have been "priced out" and looking to Edmonton for an affordable way to enter or invest in the housing market.

Ontario

As a result of economic conditions impacting markets across the country, Ontario is anticipating average residential sale price increases across the province. Due to low supply and lack of affordable housing, Toronto expects a slight price increase of 0.1 per cent. Prices are expected to increase by two per cent in Niagara; 2.3 per cent in Hamilton; 2.5 per cent in Ottawa, and Kenora: three per cent in Sault Ste. Marie, Thunder Bay, Muskoka, and Haliburton; four per cent in Kawartha Lakes; 4.5 per cent in London and Burlington; five per cent in Peterborough, Sudbury, North Bay, Durham, Kingston, and York Region; six per cent in Kitchener-Waterloo, Mississauga, and Brampton; and ten per cent in Simcoe County.

Like Western Canada, Ontario is expecting a mix of market types in 2025 as different regions adjust to lower interest rates.  Majority of regions (36 per cent) are expected to be balanced markets including Kitchener-Waterloo, the City of Toronto, Brampton, Mississauga, Durham, Kingston, Ottawa, and Sault Ste. Marie. 31per cent are expected to be sellers' markets including Sudbury, North Bay, Simcoe County, York Region, Windsor, Kenora, and Thunder Bay. Meanwhile Peterborough, Kawartha Lakes, Burlington, Hamilton, Muskoka, and Haliburton are expected to be buyers' markets. Niagara is expected to experience both buyers' and balanced conditions throughout 2025.

Despite ongoing affordability and inventory challenges across multiple markets, buyer confidence is returning as first-time homebuyers and sidelined buyers in Ontario feel the impact of lower mortgage rates and the new 30-year amortizations. As a result, majority of regions anticipate first-time homebuyers will drive market activity in 2025, with the exception of larger regions in Southern Ontario including Toronto, Windsor, York Region, and Simcoe County which predict move-up buyers will drive market activity due to the higher home prices for entry level properties.

Atlantic Canada

In 2025, the average residential sale price in Atlantic Canada is anticipated to increase in all markets while the number of sales in some markets are expected to remain the same. Residential sales prices are expected to increase by 1.5 in Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, 3.5 per cent in Saint John, New Brunswick 5.5 per cent in Fredericton/Oromocto, New Brunswick, five per cent in Halifax, Nova Scotia, eight per cent in Truro & Colchester County, Nova Scotia and St. John's, Newfoundland.

Number of sales are expected to increase by 1.5 in Charlottetown, five per cent in St John's, six per cent in Halifax, 10 per cent in Truro & Colchester County. While Saint John and Fredericton/Oromocto are expected to remain flat. Across all markets, first-time homebuyers are expected to drive market activity and single-detached houses are expected to see the most sales activity in 2025.

About Leger

Leger is the largest Canadian-owned full-service market research firm. An online survey of 1,520 Canadians aged 18 years or older, was completed between October 25-27, 2024, using Leger's online panel. Leger's online panel has approximately 400,000 members nationally and has a retention rate of 90 per cent. A probability sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of +/-2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

About the RE/MAX Network

As one of the leading global real estate franchisors, RE/MAX, LLC is a subsidiary of RE/MAX Holdings (NYSE: RMAX) with more than 140,000 agents in almost 9,000 offices with a presence in more than 110 countries and territories. RE/MAX Canada refers to RE/MAX of Western Canada (1998), LLC and RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada, Inc., and RE/MAX Promotions, Inc., each of which are affiliates of RE/MAX, LLC. Nobody in the world sells more real estate than RE/MAX, as measured by residential transaction sides.

RE/MAX was founded in 1973 by Dave and Gail Liniger, with an innovative, entrepreneurial culture affording its agents and franchisees the flexibility to operate their businesses with great independence. RE/MAX agents have lived, worked and served in their local communities for decades, raising millions of dollars every year for Children's Miracle Network Hospitals^® and other charities. To learn more about RE/MAX, to search home listings or find an agent in your community, please visit remax.ca. For the latest news from RE/MAX Canada, please visit blog.remax.ca.

Forward looking statements

This report includes "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the "safe harbour" provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of words such as "believe," "intend," "expect," "estimate," "plan," "outlook," "project," and other similar words and expressions that predict or indicate future events or trends that are not statements of historical matters. These forward-looking statements include statements regarding housing market conditions and the Company's results of operations, performance and growth. Forward-looking statements should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results. Forward-looking statements are based on information available at the time those statements are made and/or management's good faith belief as of that time with respect to future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in or suggested by the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include (1) the global COVID-19 pandemic, which has impacted the Company and continues to pose significant and widespread risks to the Company's business, the Company's ability to successfully close the anticipated reacquisition and to integrate the reacquired regions into its business, (3) changes in the real estate market or interest rates and availability of financing, (4) changes in business and economic activity in general, (5) the Company's ability to attract and retain quality franchisees, (6) the Company's franchisees' ability to recruit and retain real estate agents and mortgage loan originators, (7) changes in laws and regulations, (8) the Company's ability to enhance, market, and protect the RE/MAX and Motto Mortgage brands, (9) the Company's ability to implement its technology initiatives, and (10) fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, and those risks and uncertainties described in the sections entitled "Risk Factors" and "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in the most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") and similar disclosures in subsequent periodic and current reports filed with the SEC, which are available on the investor relations page of the Company's website at www.remax.com and on the SEC website at www.sec.gov. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. Except as required by law, the Company does not intend, and undertakes no duty, to update this information to reflect future events or circumstances.

SOURCE RE/MAX Canada